Justin Steele’s next start is expected to come on Tuesday, August 1st, 2023. His Chicago Cubs will host the Cincinnati Reds in a series with some importance in the NL Central. These two teams are battling one another in that division. They also may battle for a Wild Card spot if neither team can overtake and then hold off the Milwaukee Brewers. Steele on the mound will give Chicago a reasonable chance to win the game at home. Can Justin Steele win the NL Cy Young Award? That’s another question.

How is the NL Cy Young Award won?

The Cy Young Award recipient, it’s important to note, is determined by votes. This means it’s a subjective accolade.

When you are trying to predict a Cy Young winner, you are doing more than assess a candidate’s statistics. You have to think about what the voters will think about. The voters, historically, think about pitching wins, a win-loss ratio, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, and WHIP. There are so many pundits that get to vote that other considerations can come into play. However, those are the main bullet points.

When looking at NL pitchers, there are four that have 11 wins this season. Steele and Spencer Strider are the ones with the best win-to-loss ratio. They are each 11-3 so far this season. For some voters, that will make those two pitchers the top two favorites. Steele is the pitcher with the better ERA of the four pitchers that have 11 wins. Heading into his next start, he is at 2.87 this season. Some will think that he is the best pitcher to date based on those statistics.

Justin Steele: Needs to stay healthy

Total innings pitched is an important consideration too. If you don’t play a full season, you’ll lose tons of votes for an award that’s meant to recognize a full season. Right now, Steele has appeared in 19 games and pitched 109.2 innings. He is a little off of the pace for workload compared to the other candidates.

However, when you consider the record he has, the ERA he has, and, more importantly, his bettings odds, then he certainly looks worthy of a dabble in the NL Cy Young Market. He is way out at 25 to 1 as of the early morning on July 30th (odds subject to change).

The other pitchers to watch are Zac Gallen, Spencer Strider, and Blake Snell. When they pick up wins and have strong outings, it strengthens their resumes. But none of these pitchers have odds anywhere near as long as Steele’s. When you bet on the Cy Young Award, you are watching the other pitchers besides the one you back.

Justin Steele: Our Betting Value Recommendation

In our view, Steele is a standout among NL starting pitchers when you do a weighted average balancing betting odds with the important statistics. Therefore, we highly recommend considering him as a worthy investment at 25 to 1 in the NL Cy Young market with bet365. The safe thing about the bet is that if it wins, you can win a lot. However, if it loses you don’t necessarily lose that much because you don’t need a big bet to make +2500 interesting.

Further reading: Texas Rangers ALCS Odds After Max Scherzer Trade