Zach Eflin enters Wednesday with an 11-5 record for the Tampa Bay Rays this season. He also has an ERA of 3.36 and an excellent WHIP of 0.99. While his team has been struggling for several weeks, Eflin himself has not pitched poorly lately. He will start against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday in a game where Eflin stands a reasonable chance of picking up a win.

Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins. Alcantara’s record this season stands at 3-9, accompanied by a 4.70 ERA. Furthermore, the Marlins have not played well lately as a team. Have a look at Miami’s record over the short term below.

Miami Marlins: Recent Form Alert

  • Formerly: 48 – 34 on June 29th, 2023
  • Currently: 54 – 48 (overall)
  • Recent form: 6 – 14 since June 29th, 2023
  • Recent winning rate: .300

The Rays, who beat Miami yesterday 4-1, are -165 with bet365 to win on the moneyline on Wednesday. The Marlins are at +145, odds that probably overrate their chances. With just a .300 winning percentage in their last 20 games, their odds to beat a quality pitcher in a road game have to be considered to be more remote.

Baseball has a lot of parity and there’s more to a game than starting pitching. However, you would still assess Miami to be at least +250 in this game — if not more like +300.

Zach Eflin could pick up his 12th win

It’s also interesting that Eflin is 9 to 1 to lead the league in pitching wins. If he tallies a victory in this game as the pitcher of record on the winning team, then he will overtake the lead, at least for the short term. But note that Zac Gallen will also start on Wednesday, a pitcher who is among the contingent of starters that have eleven wins so far this season.

For the game at hand, our recommendation is going to be to back the Rays. The game starts soon (12:10 PM ET).