Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the All-Star Game’s home-run derby near the start of the break. The member of the Toronto Blue Jays hasn’t had the greatest of seasons. However, the derby accolade will remain a highlight for him. The first baseman for Toronto still appears to have a home-run total that’s a little bit high when it comes to betting futures.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. betting tips

Guerrero Jr. has only hit 13 home runs so far this season despite appearing in 88 games for the Blue Jays. July, with the exception of the derby, has actually been a really quiet time for him. In eight games before the break, he hit just one home run and one double. There may be a tendency to think that winning the home-run derby means he will get things together but that’s not something that bettors should be banking on. Guerrero Jr.’s home-run total for the regular season is set at 29.5, which looks really high for him this season.

The games before the All-Star break are considered to be the “first half” of the season. Maybe some bettors are taking Guerrero Jr.’s 13 home runs, doubling them for the second half, and adding several more on the notion that he will ‘heat up.’ However, the Jays have played 91 of 162 games, ten more than half of their schedule. They have 70 games left, suggesting that Guerrero Jr. may not even hit 25 dingers this season. That would be a low total in respect to previous seasons but it seems reasonable enough.

Our recommendation for this player is to bet against his home-run total. The derby result need not give bettors any kind of confidence. The pitching in the derby is designed to maximize home runs while the pitching in real games will be anything but. Take Guerrero Jr. to hit UNDER 29.5 home runs this season with bet365 at odds of -130.

Further reading: Other Major League Baseball betting tips