The San Francisco 49ers made it to the conference finals last season. They did this, despite very poor injury luck.

Their QB1 and QB2 both suffered injuries during the regular season. NFL teams generally have no plan for losing two quarterbacks in the same season. However, their QB3 ended up being a diamond in the rough.

Brock Purdy, a rising star from the previous season, participated in nine games during the 2022/23 NFL regular season. Although he only had significant playing time in six of those games, his experience, along with his three appearances in the NFL playoffs, undoubtedly contributed to his development as a player. As we approach the 2023/24 NFL season, it would be prudent to assess his betting lines and determine if he has been undervalued.

The San Francisco 49ers are confronted with a crucial decision surrounding Trey Lance for the upcoming 2023/24 season. Despite initially being named the starting quarterback, Lance’s injury setback last season made him an afterthought. That was especially the case when San Francisco enjoyed success without Lance.

San Francisco 49ers betting tips: Back Brock Purdy

Last season, Brock Purdy had an impressive performance, throwing for thirteen touchdowns in just six games. He maintained a distinguished TD-to-INT ratio, with only four interceptions during that time. Despite his strong showing, Purdy is currently a long shot in the “Most Regular Season Passing TDs” futures market. With bet365 sportsbook, he stands at 40 to 1 odds. In comparison, Patrick Mahomes leads the market at 15 to 2 odds. These odds are subject to change without notice (checked on July 15th, 2023).

This is a market with no heavy favorite, perhaps because just one or two missed games can really hurt a quarterback’s season totals. Bettors should only be going with long odds in this chancy betting market.

Despite his current odds, Purdy should be seen as a core contender for the title based on his impressive track record. If he manages to participate in all seventeen games of the upcoming season, you might anticipate him throwing approximately 36-37 touchdowns. This is in consideration of his passing statistics from the 2022/23 season. In the six games where he served as San Francisco’s main quarterback, he achieved 13 touchdowns. Purdy, if his per-game average held, would throw 36.8 over the course of seventeen games (ie. 36-37).

To put this in perspective, Patrick Mahomes led the NFL last season with 41 touchdowns. But it is worth noting that Purdy is the early-career QB that should be improving still while Mahomes is at his MVP peak. Considering the odds, Purdy appears to be a valuable pick to lead the NFL in passing TDs at 40 to 1.