The Baltimore Orioles will face the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, July 9th, This is the final game for both teams before the start of the All-Star break. The Orioles are entering the game in much better form. They are considered +140 moneyline underdogs with bet365. This is likely because betting trends are expected to favor the Twins due to the pitching match-up.

Orioles vs Twins: Starting Pitching

The Orioles will send Kyle Gibson to the mound. He has an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.36. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan, a strong pitcher for Minnesota, will start for the Twins. He has a 3.42 ERA and a very sharp WHIP of 0.98.

If you pick over Ryan’s starts, then it is basically just three really bad starts this season that have hurt him. He gave up six earned runs against Atlanta in late June. Earlier that month, he gave up six against Detroit. Back in May, he had a game where he was tagged with five earned runs. With seventeen starts on the season, only three have them have been ugly.

Gibson, Baltimore’s starter, had a horrible June. His month-long ERA was way up at 6.84. In his only start in July, he gave up four earned runs in six innings pitched. He makes Baltimore difficult to back in this game, noting that the Orioles have lost five of the last six games that he has appeared in. That is a trend that discredits Gibson because Baltimore has actually played really well in general, as per the following chart.

Baltimore Orioles betting tips: Recent Form Alert

  • Formerly: 35 – 21 on June 1st, 2023
  • Currently: 53 – 35 (overall)
  • Recent form: 18 – 14 since June 1st, 2023
  • Recent winning rate: .562

The chart above shows that Baltimore is winning about 56% of their overall games. However, they won just 16.6% of the games that Gibson appeared in over the same time frame (ie. since June 1st, 2023).

But one thing that should be considered is that Baltimore can overly rely on the bullpen in this game precisely because of the impending All-Star break. With the upcoming rest, if Baltimore uses their bullpen a lot, then it won’t hurt them. There is nothing to save them for as the Orioles won’t be active again for days.

If Gibson’s off his game again, then expect him to be on a short leash. This game looks like one to back the O’s in, noting that the Minnesota Twins have not played well for several weeks.

Recommendation: Baltimore to win at +140 (7 to 5) with bet365.